"Doctor, what's the prognosis on Jack Eichel's Hart Trophy chances?"
"Not good!"
"But I don't understand! He's on pace for 101 points this season and has already tied the single-season record for assists. What are his chances for winning his first Hart Trophy ever?"
"Well..."
Imagine a hypothetical scenario where the Vegas Golden Knights megastar was rushed to the hospital for his fading MVP chances. Luckily, such a world doesn't exist. Therefore, fans don't have to worry about the 4 Nations Face-Off superstar leaving our lives anytime soon.
But let's talk about those MVP chances for a second. Eichel is having a phenomenal season so far, ranking fourth in assists (50). He's tied for sixth with 69 (nice) points and already has four assists in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
It's not just his regular stats that are shining, though. He's posting a shooting talent above average of 13.1% and has a shooting talent adjusted expected goals stat of 23.4%. The moral of the story. He's darn tootin' good. One would consider him in the running for the most valuable prize in the NHL this side of the Stanley Cup.
But is that the case? Let's use ESPN as the barometer of where the race stands. Believe it or not, they have a recent update on the race and who has the lead (hypothetically). Will fans see Eichel's name mentioned among the elites? Or will it focus on other big names like Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl?
The project Hart Trophy winner for ESPN is... Connor Hellebuyck?
It's not any disrespect to MacKinnon or Draisaitl (or Eichel himself). Both players have been phenomenal this season, with the Avalanche center leading the NHL in points (87) and Connor McDavid's wingman right behind him (83). However, the Winnipeg Jets goaltender does have the best GAA in the league (2.07) and the second-best save percentage (.925). He's also the leader in goals saved above expected (27.8) and wins above replacement (4.64). These stats show why he's the most valuable player.
In case you're keeping score at home, seven different goaltenders have won the Hart Trophy. Carey Price is the most recent winner, winning it in 2014-15 while with the Montreal Canadiens. Dominik Hasek is the only two-time winner to be a goaltender, winning back-to-back with the Buffalo Sabres (1996-97 and 1997-18).
But enough about Hellebuyck since he'll probably be roasted by the Vegas Golden Knights in a potential playoff matchup. Where does Jack Eichel stand? Is the doctor's diagnosis much more severe than we thought? Well, dear reader, he didn't earn any votes among the colleagues from Disney. Names like Quinn Hughes, Mitch Marner, Nikita Kucherov and Zach Werenski earned votes along with Hellebuyck and the usual suspects.
However, poor Eichel's chances are out in the cold where they might perish from hypothermia. But that's not to say that the four-time All-Star is bad. Hockey fans across the globe have seen what the center can do. But he has lofty competition in front of him. MacKinnon is the reigning Hart Trophy winner and Hellebuyck won last season's Vezina Trophy. Even with fans noticing No. 9's talent, his chances of winning MVP are stiffening like rigor mortis.