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Analytics point to the Golden Knights being worse after a tumultuous offseason

How bad could it be for the Vegas Golden Knights in 2026-27? Here's how worse they got in the offseason.
ByJacob Walters
Vegas Golden Knights v San Jose Sharks
Vegas Golden Knights v San Jose Sharks | Kavin Mistry/GettyImages

Not many Vegas Golden Knights fans are entirely convinced that the team got better in the offseason. Trading Pavel Dorofeyev to the New York Rangers was one domino to fall. But it wasn't the only one that fell during the offseason.

The Golden Knights also traded Keegan Kolesar and Kaedan Korczak away to Eastern Conference teams. They also watched names like Colton Sissons and Cole Smith go to Original Six teams, hurting their overall forward depth. That should be enough to convince the masses that the Golden Knights should take a step back next season.

The analytics seem to support that data, too. According to Off The Rush Hockey on X, the Golden Knights had the second-largest setback in the Pacific Division at -6.18 pSPAR (projected standings points above replacement), only finishing ahead of the Anaheim Ducks (-8.54). Other teams that regressed during the offseason included the San Jose Sharks (-4.58), the Calgary Flames (-2.62), the Vancouver Canucks (-1.17), and the Seattle Kraken (-1.10).

The Los Angeles Kings (+0.02) and the Edmonton Oilers (+2.04) are the only two teams expected to improve this season. The Kings added a slew of veteran (by veteran, I mean way older) forwards such as Mats Zuccarello, Corey Perry, and Erik Haula. Meanwhile, the Oilers acquired Shakir Mukhamadullin and added Frederik Andersen to their goaltending mix.

On the surface, that sounds terrible and awful for the Golden Knights. Losing that many projected points means that the Oilers are prime contenders to win the Pacific Division. Surely, it's the end of the world as we know it, right?

The case for the Vegas Golden Knights being fine in the Pacific Division, even after the offseason shakeup

The absence of a bona fide shooter looms large for the Golden Knights, especially on the power play. When you lose someone who scored a franchise-record 20 power play goals, that'll leave a massive void the size of the Grand Canyon. That's not even mentioning how you lost lower-unit depth for both the defenseman group and the forwards.

However, the rest of the Pacific Division got worse. The Flames offloaded numerous pieces in a calendar year (think of Blake Coleman and his 20 goals and 15 assists), while the Vancouver Canucks don't have Quinn Hughes anymore. As for the Kraken? Well, don't get me started.

That brings us to the Anaheim Ducks and the San Jose Sharks, two teams that handed out gossamer contracts to their star players. Sure, those were well-earned. But the Ducks are scrambling to pay Cutter Gauthier, while the Sharks added... Ilya Samsonov. Certainly, that career GAA of 2.77 and that career save percentage of .902 looks good on paper, right?

Truth be told, the Sharks did add Jacob Trouba and Darnell Nurse. But does that give San Jose more playmakers to work with? Are they just relying on Will Smith to break through, while getting older on the blue line?

That's not even mentioning how Frederik Andersen isn't a sure thing. Sure, he had a nice Stanley Cup run with the Carolina Hurricanes (1.89 GAA, save percentage of .910, and three shutouts). But he was exposed by the Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final. It took Brandon Bussi to bail out the Hurricanes and lead them to their second Stanley Cup.

Being the optimist that I am, everything shouldn't be too horrific for the Golden Knights in 2026-27. This is still a star-studded lineup that has the front office intact. If anything, McCrimmon can simply make a jaw-dropping move that shocks the NHL universe to its very core. Boom. Problem solved.

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