Remember when I talked about last season's debacle with the Vegas Golden Knights? They had a 2-0 lead against the Dallas Stars and were heading into T-Mobile Arena confident and happy. Well, Wyatt Johnston shattered that confidence with an overtime goal in Game 3, gifting Dallas the series in seven games (be careful, Edmonton. If the Stars can do it, Vegas can do it, too).
Well, this isn't the first time the Golden Knights found themselves down 2-0 in a series. In fact, this isn't even the first time they've been down 2-0 in the second round. This happened in 2021 against the Colorado Avalanche, where the West Division winners got two home wins.
Ironically enough, Game 1 was a decisive victory that was by more than one goal. A 7-1 victory thanks to MacKinnon (two goals and one assist) and Cale Makar (one goal and three assists) got the Golden Knights blown out the door.
The next game? It was a heartbreaking overtime loss where Vegas evened things up, only to lose thanks to Mikko Rantanen. Hmm... I wonder what he's doing now?
A funny thing happened for the Golden Knights against the Avalanche
But a funny thing happened in Game 3. The Golden Knights found themselves in yet another dogfight, with Rantanen scoring yet another goal. Geez, is there anything this Finnish winger can't do? Still, that didn't deter Vegas, which got two third-period goals from Jonathan Marchessault and Max Pacioretty. The result? A 3-2 win.
Suddenly, the Golden Knights had some confidence. They blew out the Avalanche in Game 4 and won Game 5 in overtime. You can thank Mark Stone and his expressive self for that one.
After Game 5, the tables were turned. Now, the Golden Knights held a 3-2 lead that would be sealed by a decisive 6-3 victory in Game 6. Six different Golden Knights stars scored in that game, including Alex Pietrangelo, William Karlsson, and a spry Keegan Kolesar.
Sure, Vegas ran into a red-hot Carey Price in the next round, ending their playoff run. But do you think Calvin Pickard really is Carey Price?
Let's look at his postseason stats, shall we? Sure, his story's remarkable given that he's 6-0-0 during the Stanley Cup playoffs. However, digging further into the stats will reveal he's been buoyed by an All-Star attack (stats courtesy of MoneyPuck).
Stats | GAA | Save Percentage | Goals Saved Above Expected | Save Percentage Above Expected | Wins Above Replacement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Calvin Pickard | 2.84 | .888 | -1.0 | -0.0024 | -0.16 |
Mind you, the Golden Knights faced Phillip Grubauer in the 2021 series. He was a tougher challenge during that era, boasting a postseason GAA of 2.61 and a save percentage of .914. If there's any excuse for this team not to fire 30 or more shots on the 2017 first overall Expansion Draft pick, it better be thrown out.
Can the Vegas Golden Knights apply that lesson from the Colorado Avalanche series here?
Well, it appears that it is possible. The Colorado Avalanche had similar offensive weapons to the Edmonton Oilers.
For every Connor McDavid, there was a Nathan MacKinnon.
For every Leon Draisaitl, there was a Mikko Rantanen.
For every Evan Bouchard, there was a Cale Makar.
But that falls completely on two factors. First, will Pavel Dorofeyev return to action and how will he do? The good news for the Vegas Golden Knights is that he is traveling with the team. He was also skating on Thursday.
Nicolas Roy avoided a suspension and should be ready for Game 3 after an ugly cross-check on Thursday. Getting Dorofeyev back would bolster the attack immensely.
Second, the series falls entirely on Adin Hill to turn things around. Sure, he's a far cry from Marc-Andre Fleury, who helped the Golden Knights pull off that comeback win in 2021. However, that doesn't mean that Hill can't be useful.
He must do a better job of tracking pucks and playing the full 60 minutes (or more). He did a great job in overtime of Game 2 until Draisaitl scored. Having a postseason GAA of 3.16 (hell no!) and a save percentage of .874 isn't cutting it.
The series isn't over yet, even with Vegas expected to miss Brayden McNabb for some time. However, they can't afford to drop the ball and be caught in an "avalanche" of goals. Otherwise, you're giving the Edmonton fans (and writers) more material to work with. That'll mean a long summer for Mark Stone and the gang.