Numerous storylines are littering Wednesday's huge matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche. The two teams have big-name superstars in Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Eichel. That's a good starting point.
The two Hart Trophy candidates will duke it out for hockey supremacy, where the victor will bolster their case for the NHL's MVP. What better way to watch the Warner Brothers network known as TNT than to see two premier athletes in their sport? It's like watching Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes square off. Ehh... What's up, doc?
But there's more to it than that.
It's the battle of the last two Stanley Cup champions from the Western Conference. Behind their numerous scoring options and timely netminding (thank you, Adin Hill), the Avalanche and Golden Knights have established themselves as the NHL's premier hockey teams.
Two underlying statistics will also dictate how the game goes on Wednesday. Not many people think about stats during a hockey game (or sporting event, in general). They only think about players like MacKinnon and Eichel (or other names like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews). Star power will do that to a sport.
But this one's dedicated to the math geeks out there. You all deserve some time in the spotlight, especially since it's hard pulling statistics from games. Consider this your Thanksgiving because you deserve a number-filled feast. Here's a post looking at two important stats that fans aren't thinking about on Wednesday.
The penalty minutes and being aggressive
One aspect where the Vegas Golden Knights have thrived is staying out of the penalty box. According to BonusFinder, they're the third least aggressive team in the NHL over the past four seasons. This is based on fights and the number of penalty minutes per game.
The Golden Knights have participated in only 45 fights across 379 games, which amounts to one fight for every 10 games (0.119). That's below the league average of 74.9 in that same period. The only two teams below the Golden Knights are the Pittsburgh Penguins (0.107) and Carolina Hurricanes (0.092). The most aggressive? The Nashville Predators at 0.398. The Avalanche averaged 0.168 fights per game, which is good for 10th in the NHL in that span.
But the more noteworthy stat is their averaging of 7.26 penalty minutes per game since 2020. That's the third-fewest in the NHL behind the St. Louis Blues (7.15) and Pittsburgh Penguins (7.02). As for the Avalanche? They averaged 8.54 penalty minutes per game in that span, 13th in the NHL.
Remember that the Golden Knights (30.9% power play entering Wednesday, third in the NHL) and Avalanche (29%, fourth in the NHL) have dominated on the man advantage. The more disciplined team will thrive on Wednesday, specifically when a power play opportunity is presented.
The Colorado Avalanche have a goaltending problem
Another stat that should benefit the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday concerns the Colorado Avalanche goaltending. How bad have the netminders been in Denver this season?
The Colorado Avalanche have a 85.5% team save percentage.
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) November 27, 2024
The last time a team had a save percentage that bad in a full season was the 10-70-4 Ottawa Senators in 1992-93. #GoAvsGo
Combine the 85.5% team save percentage with the Golden Knights averaging 3.86 goals per game (fourth in the NHL) and that should be a cocktail for success. Big names like Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev (10 goals), and Pavel Dorofeyev (11 goals) should have whoever starts for the Avalanche panicking like someone stole their car (or weed).
It doesn't matter if it's the Bulgarian turnstile Alexandar Georgiev (3.49 GAA, save percentage of 87.1%) or Justus Annunen (3.23 GAA, save percentage of 87.2%). The Avalanche haven't been solid in net. Georgiev gets the start, meaning it'll present a chance to tee off.
That goes back to the power play, which presents a "golden" opportunity itself. If the Golden Knights can ramp up pressure and get bodies in front of the net, it'll be a long Wednesday night in Denver for the home team. But the road team won't care, for it'll be two more points to add an exclamation point.
Of course, that also means whoever starts in net for the Golden Knights must be stellar. Adin Hill has turned it around in the past four games, averaging two goals allowed and a save percentage of 91.8%. If he gets the green light on Wednesday, he'll be relied upon to keep the Golden Knights in the game. Considering he's played better, that shouldn't be an issue.