We're about 19 calendar days away from the end of the season, and still only two teams have officially qualified for the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: The Winnipeg Jets and the Washington Capitals. It's a testament to how competitive division races have been in the NHL this season, where every division title is still up for grabs outside of the Metropolitan Division.
It's also one not bound to stay the same for very long, except for the wild card spots. That's stretching as long as the Livestream for the "Avengers: Doomsday" cast. All this is to say the Vegas Golden Knights willclinch a spot in the playoffs.
The "when" and the "how" are up for debate, but the result is who the first round opponent will be. Last week, a handful of teams seemed within the realm of possibility to fill that list. Today, there are three teams with the best likelihood to take on Vegas in three weeks: the St. Louis Blues, the Minnesota Wild, and the Edmonton Oilers.
Yes, Colorado's a possibility too. But given the way they've been playing (last night against the Kings being just one small example), that is a slim possibility. If Vegas is without Tomas Hertl in that series...probably for the best.
So I thought, in the spirit of Cordelia Cupp from "The Residence," to take these next few weeks to check out how these potential matchups could stack up. The good bits, the troubling bits, the nebulous gray that makes the Stanley Cup Playoffs a great drama. Let's start things with the team currently slated to be our opponent in the first round: the Minnesota Wild.
Good News: [pressing play on Game Replay from Tuesday]
What we saw Tuesday night in St. Paul provides enough good vibes to a hypothetical first-round series. Keeping the top line (Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, Vinnie Hinostroza) caged takes care of the rest of the team. In the Wild's five other losses this month, they had one assist, 27 shots, and a combined -13. Outside of that, it's 17 points (five goals, 12 assists), 42 shots, and a +7 combined.
The goaltending did the best in those games, keeping it to a one-goal game going into the third in every one except the St. Louis game. In the third though, they were outscored 8-4 by the opponents. For a team with one of the best third-period goal differentials in the league, that is a favorable hole just begging to be driven through in a seven-game series.
Bad News: the return of "The Thrill"
In soccer/football, the player who carries the brunt of the offensive force is called a Talisman. Kiril Kaprizov is about as close to that definition of a Talisman as we have in the NHL right now. He's missed almost half of the Wild's 73 games this season, yet is still top three on the team in every major offensive category there is (and probably a few that haven't been invented yet). Against Vegas for his career, he's even worse: 16 points (10 goals, five assists) in 15 games, including two December 18.
All that just as news came yesterday that Kaprizov is resuming skating with the team. On this timeline, it puts him somewhere near the end of the season in terms of a return. With that amount of rest, alongside a game or two where Filip Gustavsson or Marc-Andre Fleury steals a game...suddenly the clouds get a little grayer than expected.
Overall, this would be a favorable series for the Vegas Golden Knights to end up in if Tomas Hertl is still injured by the time of this series. If Hertl comes back from injury and dominates like his usual self, it becomes the kind of easy squeezy lemon peezy series. The last four teams that've won a Stanley Cup have had these on their resume, mind you.
Next week, barring something unforeseen, I take a look at the St. Louis Blues. Until then...