William Karlsson was the lone goal-scorer for the Vegas Golden Knights when they traveled to face the Tampa Bay Lightning last week. It was an uninspiring offensive performance that wasted a valiant goaltending effort by Carl Lindbom as the Lightning won in overtime.
Sometimes, it feels like the hard work put in was wasted for nothing. Doesn't that stink?
While the Golden Knights looked like they had something similar against the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday, there was one notable difference: the shots on goal. The Golden Knights had nearly double the number of shots on goal against Detroit compared to that Tampa Bay game. Like the Lightning game, it saw an excellent goaltending effort that had a different result: a win.
Obviously, you can say that Vegas must get more shots on goal. It's like Magic Johnson talking about the World Series, saying that whoever wins Game 7 wins the whole thing.
But this has a deeper meaning. You can tell Jack Eichel to take more shots, yet he's already doing that. In fact, he literally leads the Golden Knights in shots on goal this season with 50.
Instead, that deeper meaning lies in how they won against the Red Wings. Tuesday's game showed the stark contrast between how Vegas won vs. how they lost in overtime in Tampa.
How the Vegas Golden Knights can beat the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday (aside from having home-ice advantage)
The Vegas Golden Knights haven't been known to spend too much time in the offensive zone. In fact, they're 19th in the league in this category entering Wednesday, according to NHL Edge (40.7%). They're just below the NHL average of 41.1%, meaning they've fallen below the threshold.
In contrast, they've spent 40.5% of their time in the defensive zone (eighth in the NHL entering Wednesday) this season. That partially explains why the Golden Knights have struggled to get going in the first period. They're consistently on their toes, fending off oncoming attacks from turnovers and other problems.
When you compare Tuesday's game to the Lightning game from a week prior, that's been a major difference. Vegas spent plenty of time keeping John Gibson on his toes in the 1-0 win. It just happened to be that the Red Wings' netminder was on point, only allowing an Ivan Barbashev second-period goal.
The point? Win in all three zones. Tampa Bay has more offensive weapons than Detroit does. Instead of just Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat, there's Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point (to name a few). That's not even mentioning Victor Hedman leading the attack, which can cause countless problems for Vegas.
Winning the zone battle isn't the only thing the Golden Knights must do to win
High-danger chances are a must for the Golden Knights come Thursday. They're currently 27th in the category with 92, falling below the NHL average of 105. That's surprising, considering names like Jack Eichel (eight goals and 11 assists) haven't shown up in this category. For example, Eichel only has 1.88 High-Danger xGoals this season, an underwhelming number for the Golden Knights megastar.
If Vegas wants to exact its revenge on Tampa Bay, that starts with getting dirty in the High-Danger department. Camp out in the offensive zone and be more aggressive. The good news is that returning players like Noah Hanifin make this possible, as proven by his three shots on Tuesday.
Sometimes, it takes that returning player to change a team's offensive fortunes. Golden Knights fans saw that on Tuesday against an upstart Red Wings team, when they dominated the offensive zone. Now's the time to carry that over to the next game, specifically against an established veteran team like the Lightning.