Tomas Hertl is having a great season for the Vegas Golden Knights. He scored nine goals and 21 points in 2024-25, making him one of the most valuable players on the team. However, there's a catch to this.
The two-time All-Star scored seven goals and four assists on the power play. He's made his living crashing the net and even cutting into the slot. In turn, it's led the Golden Knights power play to be the fifth-best in the league (27.1%).
The even-strength play is a different story. Hertl has scored two goals and eight assists in five-on-five situations. Without the power play, these stats don't look as inspiring. It becomes a concerning trend that leaves some fans wondering if he's worth being traded for in March.
The answer to that question is yes, of course. For the first time since the team's inception, the Golden Knights have a top-five power play. They're attacking the net more and using their overwhelming size to create mismatches, which is paying dividends for players like Hertl and Mark Stone.
The result? Having the second-most points in the NHL entering Saturday's slate of games. Still, there's a glaring issue with the five-on-five side of things. Is it the 31-year-old's fault? Or are his linemates letting him down?
It turns out the issue is deeper and much more complex. For example, some linemates aren't pulling their weight or are just unfortunate. Let's dive further into the stats and create the perfect line for the former San Jose Sharks star.
Creating the perfect line for Tomas Hertl
This season has seen Tomas Hertl play in several line combinations. Here's a sample of who the 31-year-old has played with, according to DobberSports.
- Tomas Hertl-Keegan Kolesar-Nicolas Roy
- Tomas Hertl-Alexander Holtz-Victor Olofsson
- Tomas Hertl-Brett Howden-Pavel Dorofeyev
- Tomas Hertl-Alexander Holtz-Pavel Dorofeyev
- Tomas Hertl-Tanner Pearson-Alexander Holtz
If you notice one player in the majority of these line combinations, it's Alexander Holtz. The 22-year-old has had a quiet season, scoring two goals and seven assists. Some of that's attributed to bad shot selection. Some also go to bad luck, with the puck not bouncing the Swede's way.
So let's look at the line combination that has been the best with Holtz in it. Here's what stands out, according to Natural Stat Trick.
- Hertl-Holtz-Dorofeyev: 27:31 TOI, 0 GF, 0 GA, six SF, 10 SA (37.5 SF%), 32.43 Corsi%
- Hertl-Pearson-Holtz: 6:36 TOI, one GF, 0 GA (100 GF%), four SF, three SA (57.14 SF%), 44.44 Corsi%
- Hertl-Olofsson-Holtz: 8:07 TOI, 0 GF, one GA, three SF, four SA (42.86 SF%), 57.89 Corsi%
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Hertl-Holtz-Pearson line is the best unit of the three based on the lone goal. Although the Hertl-Olofsson-Holtz unit has had more effective shot attempts, the Pearson line has a better shots for percentage and has a goal.
Granted, both units have much less ice time than the Dorofeyev group. However, that unit has nothing to show, with the lowest shots for percentage and Corsi percentage. Whichever statistic you prefer dictates who the best Holtz-Hertl line is. Is it goals? The Pearson unit works. Do you want effective shots? Go with the Olofsson unit. Maybe you want an effective goal scorer that needs more time. Go with Dorofeyev's group.
But what about the "Triple H" line with Holtz, Hertl, and Brett Howden?
Well, they have 2:18 TOI with one goal allowed. They've also generated one shot (20 SF%) with a Corsi% of 16.67. The line sounds fun on paper until you realize the unit doesn't mesh much.
But what about the other two line combinations?
Let's explore the remaining two line combinations involving Tomas Hertl. Alexander Holtz isn't having the best season, which eliminates him from the conversation. So let's look at the two groups. Who has done the best with Hertl in the lineup?
- Tomas Hertl-Pavel Dorofeyev-Brett Howden: 113:28 TOI, seven GF, eight GA (46.67 GF%), 59 SF, 53 SA (52.68 SF%) 46.72 Corsi%
- Tomas Hertl-Nicolas Roy-Keegan Kolesar: 119:25 TOI, two GF, three GA (40 GF%), 72 SF, 40 SA (64.29 SF%), 54.68 Corsi%
Fans of pure goal-scorers will love the Dorofeyev-Howden unit since it combines speed with power. You also have solid backchecking not seen with Alexander Holtz. With the two forwards in the Vegas Golden Knights's top three in goals scored (Howden is third with 10, Dorofeyev is 12), Hertl will get more scoring opportunities.
But the Roy-Kolesar unit works best if you want more effective shots on goal. Not only has the trio generated more shots, but they've also gotten more on goal with better scoring chances. While Roy and Kolesar aren't effective goal-scorers like Dorofeyev and Howden, they move the puck better and play a better forechecking game.
Still, that shouldn't discount the Dorofeyev-Hertl-Howden trio from being the best unit. The three players have the better goals for percentage and more goals. In this league, goals are important regardless of how you get them. That could be the key to watching the Czech forward explode for more points.