Vegas Golden Knights: Mapping out how Lehner could remain in Sin City
One of the big Vegas Golden Knights storylines to follow in the off-season will be the future of goaltender Robin Lehner.
It is a subject we have covered extensively on this site already, but the Vegas Golden Knights face the very real reality of losing Lehner in the off-season.
Acquired as a pure rental at the Trade Deadline from the Chicago Blackhawks, a tactic the Golden Knights rarely employ, Lehner went 3-0-0 in his first three starts in Vegas with a hugely impressive 1.67 Goals Against Average and a .940 Save Percentage.
However, carrying an Average Annual Value of $5 million, although both the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Chicago Blackhawks retained some of that salary, Lehner is already an expensive commodity for a glorified backup.
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Due to become a UFA in the off-season for the fourth time since 2017, Lehner will be seeking both long-term stability and a significant pay rise.
Given that the Golden Knights are already committed to paying future Hall of Famer Marc-Andre Fleury an Average Annual Value of $7,000,000 through the 2021-22 season, the front office will unlikely want to pay big dollars to Lehner.
And they won’t be able to given that they have around $8 million in cap space to re-sign seven free agents and fill out the rest of the roster.
Losing Lehner would be a huge body blow given his elite ability, especially if he walks after just three games if hockey doesn’t return this year.
But, after seeing that 41.9% of fans voted for Lehner as the goalie they want going forward in a Fan Survey by The Athletic, we decided to delve into the ways the Golden Knights could keep Robin Lehner on the roster for the 2020-21 season and beyond.
The Logical Scenario
So, let’s fast forward to the off-season and the Vegas Golden Knights have decided that they can’t lose Robin Lehner.
They also don’t want to cut ties with franchise goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, plus having two elite goalies on the roster will extend their Stanley Cup window further.
And, given that Lehner is a whole seven years younger than Fleury, the Knights would have their future starter in place once the future Hall of Famer hangs up his skates.
However, in order to lock down Lehner long-term, the front office would have to be prepared to pay significant dollars.
Let’s settle on an AAV of $6 million for say four years, meaning that the Golden Knights would be spending $13 million on two goalies through the 2021-22 season with Fleury’s contract up then.
With the cap for 2020-21 likely to be frozen at $81.5 million in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Vegas would have to make a tough decision in order to keep Lehner on the roster.
In other words, they would have to rob Peter in order to pay Paul.
With a loaded top-six forward unit, arguably one of the best in the NHL, the Golden Knights would have to trade one of those pieces to create the cap room needed to re-sign Lehner to a long-term deal.
Veteran center Paul Stastny would be the most obvious candidate given that he regressed in 2019-20 with 38 points (17 goals, 21 assists) in 71 games, although his $6,500,000 AAV would be tough to move.
The Knights would likely have to retain some of Stastny’s salary in order to move him, and that won’t help with their salary cap situation.
Instead, moving a top-six winger in the ilk of Reilly Smith, who carries an Average Annual Value of $5,000,000 through 2021-22, could be the better option.
It would be a tough decision given what Smith brings to the table in terms of both skill and leadership, but the Golden Knights would have no choice to deal away a potent piece of their top-six forward unit if they wanted to keep intact their deadly one-two punch between the pipes.
Unless of course…
The Bonkers Scenario
There is an outside-of-the-box idea the Vegas Golden Knights could pursue if they didn’t want to give up one of their top-six forwards.
It will be controversial, however.
We discussed this subject in a piece we did earlier today, but some of the shine appears to have disappeared from Marc-Andre Fleury’s crown in recent weeks.
Some Golden Knights fans have taken a real liking to Robin Lehner and feel he should be the undisputed starter for this franchise going forward.
They do have a point given that Lehner is a whole seven years younger than Fleury, while he’s right at the peak of his powers.
After tearing it up for the New York Islanders in 2018-19, Lehner was a finalist for the Vezina Trophy and he’s also had a superior Save Percentage than Fleury in each of the past two seasons.
So, with that in mind, if Vegas General Manager Kelly McCrimmon felt Lehner was the goalie for the Knights both in the present day and in the future, then severing ties with Fleury is the extreme way to go.
By either trading Fleury or buying out the future Hall of Famer the Golden Knights would free up the cap space needed to re-sign Lehner to a long-term deal without giving up a key piece of their forward core.
It wouldn’t be that straightforward, however, given that the Knights would likely have to retain some salary in order to persuade a team to trade for Fleury.
And if the Golden Knights opted to buyout Fleury, they would suffer a total cap hit of $9833,332 over the course of the next four years, according to the Buyout Calculator on CapFriendly.
There is also the emotional aspect in regards to the importance Fleury has to this franchise, and removing him from the organization wouldn’t sit well with a lot of fans and a lot of the players.
It is an incredibly tough and potentially franchise-altering decision, and one General Manager Kelly McCrimmon and President of Hockey Operations George McPhee will have to think long and hard about.
In truth, it is likely that Robin Lehner will be the odd man out and will be allowed to hit the open market with face of the franchise Marc-Andre Fleury retiring with the Vegas Golden Knights, but we thought it would be fun to explore the options available if Lehner were to remain in Sin City beyond 2019-20.