Among the profusion of tasks staring the Vegas Golden Knights in the face this offseason, renewing their vows with William Karlsson must be top of the list.
Ever since he was plucked out of obscurity in the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, Karlsson has been the darling of the Vegas Golden Knights.
His boyish looks and charm complete with those long, flowing golden locks has endeared him to the thousands who flock to the T-Mobile Arena night in and night out.
Nothing more than a bit-part player for the Columbus Blue Jackets, Karlsson had hardly set the NHL alight prior to being identified by the Golden Knights as a must have asset in the Expansion Draft.
Both the eye test and the stats didn’t paint a pretty picture for the Swedish native, who had only managed a career high of nine goals in his three years in the big leagues prior to 2017-18.
In fact, a combined total of 50 points in 183 NHL games for the Blue Jackets and the Anaheim Ducks – the team who had drafted him 53rd overall in the 2011 Draft – suggested that Karlsson would just be a spare part for the Knights as well.
However, Vegas President of Hockey Operations George McPhee spotted huge talent and upside in the energetic center, sensing an opportunity to tap into unfulfilled potential.
It was a huge gamble even by an expansion team who were able to call the mecca of gambling their home, but it was one that paid off handsomely in the end.
You can even go as far as saying that Vegas have won big with the vast majority of their bets, and Karlsson is the epitome of that.
There’s no place like home. William Karlsson knows that better than anyone 🏠
— 🏆 - Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) May 3, 2019
Hear him tell you why @Vegas is the best place in the world to live and play hockey pic.twitter.com/CJa9t5lhuJ
Plugged in the middle of a top line between Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault, two more players who had failed to hit the heights in the NHL despite both harboring elite skills, Karlsson flourished in his first year in Sin City and quickly morphed into a bona fide star built for the big moments on the biggest stage.
He led the charge as the Golden Knights stunned the sporting world by marching to the Stanley Cup Finals in their inaugural season, smashing and setting a flurry of new records as if it were child’s play.
Ironing out any wrinkles in his game that had previously held him back in Anaheim and Columbus, Karlsson thrived as one of the starring cast members in this island of misfit toys, putting up 43 goals and 35 assists for 78 points in 82 regular season games, setting new career highs in all categories in emphatic fashion.
His importance to the team could not be understated – as 16 power play points and six game winning goals testify – and his wizardry on the ice was backed up by his boy next door personality off it.
In less than a season Karlsson, an NHL nobody for much of his early career, had become one of the faces of a franchise that was taking hockey and the rest of the sporting universe by storm.
Granted, there was an expected dip in production in 2018-19 as Karlsson and the rest of his team mates endured a sophomore slump, particularly in the first half of the year.
But great players possess that uncanny knack of being able to turn it on when it matters and Karlsson rode a hot hand down the stretch to ensure that Vegas clinched a playoff berth for the second consecutive year.
That formidable SKM line (yes, I’ve just made that up) found their mojo at just the right time and combined for 22 points (10 goals, 12 assists) during a three game span in March.
Between the three of them they have wreaked havoc during their two years together as a line, totalling 381 points (regular season games only).
Shifting the focus back on Karlsson, the left-handed shot finished 2018-19 with 24 goals and 32 assists for 56 points in 82 games – a significant drop in production compared to the year before.
However, any notion that the forward was a one-season wonder can be firmly marked down as a pointless hot take.
He was deadly in the latter stages of the season (where it matters most) and he still finished second on the team in points behind Marchessault.
It is important to not just focus on the production, though. Karlsson is much, much more than that.
He led all Knights forwards in ice time with 18:51 and he could be relied upon in a number of situations, including on the power play, the penalty kill and at even strength.
Consider the fact that Karlsson also won 47.65 percent of his draws in the faceoff circle and is also a perfect 191-for-191 in terms of games played over the last two years, then you get an idea of just how crucial he is to this franchise going forward.
Money, money, money
Extending Karlsson to a new deal this offseason will of course all boil down to dollars and how much the fans’ favourite wants.
How many dollars Vegas wants to dish out to their top line center will also factor into it, of course.
But it won’t be a case of how much the Golden Knights are willing to lavish on Karlsson, it will be a question of how much they are able to splash out.
It is no secret that the salary cap will be one giant migraine for the Knights this offseason, and there are lots of obstacles to try to manoeuvre out of the way before they even get to contract negotiations with their star center.
For starters, the Knights have four unrestricted free agents to deal with in addition to five restricted free agents, including Karlsson.
The NHL Salary Cap for 2018-19 is projected to be in the region of $83 million, Vegas currently has $82.375 million committed to next year’s roster which doesn’t leave them with a lot of wriggle room.
If you take into account as well that Golden Knights General Manager Kelly McCrimmon and President of Hockey Operations George McPhee will likely be looking to dip their toes into free agency in order to bolster this roster, then some players will have to be moved out and traded.
It could mean having to wave goodbye to favourites like Cody Eakin, Ryan Reaves and maybe even Deryk Engelland, but that is the price you would be willing to pay in order to be able to lock down Karlsson and make him a cornerstone piece of this franchise for years to come.
When it boils down to it, Karlsson is likely to want between $6-7 million per year – whether that is a realistic demand remains to be seen.
He could be awarded up to $6 million in arbitration if talks on a long-term deal stall, but that scenario would cast serious doubt on his future in Vegas beyond 2019-20.
Put it simply, Vegas will have to be shrewd, creative and perhaps even ruthless if they are to get this new deal over the line this summer.
Conclusion
All in all, William Karlsson is an asset the Vegas Golden Knights can ill-afford to lose and I don’t think they will.
Both parties want to renew their vows and ensure that this marriage goes the distance, which again I believe it will.
It is just a numbers game and working to the constraints of the salary cap, which is easier said than done.
However, Karlsson has a lead role on this roster and he’s proved he can be relied upon offensively in addition to being durable and versatile – all cherished and sought after attributes.
William Karlsson is the marquee centrepiece of the Vegas Golden Knights’ forward group and handing the two-way center the contract his play over the last two years deserves makes perfect sense.
And it should be the number one priority for the Golden Knights this offseason.