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Vegas Golden Knights Statistical Analysis of Reid Duke

By Benjamin Krzywicki |
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JUNE 28: Reid Duke, 169th overall pick of the Minnesota Wild, poses for a portrait during the 2014 NHL Entry Draft at Wells Fargo Center on June 28, 2014 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JUNE 28: Reid Duke, 169th overall pick of the Minnesota Wild, poses for a portrait during the 2014 NHL Entry Draft at Wells Fargo Center on June 28, 2014 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)

The first Vegas Golden Knights player in history might be a steal according to the numbers.

Recently in my top 10 WHL Options, I discussed why the Vegas Golden Knights should stay away from Stelio Mattheos. Mattheos has lots of red flags that could easily apply to, his Brandon Wheat Kings teammate and Vegas Golden Knights’ prospect, Reid Duke. Furthermore the red flags are.

  • Primary Assists and Secondary Assists
  • Power Play Points
  • Nolan Patrick’s Involvement.

Primary Assists

Primary assist are more valuable in hockey than secondary assists. This year in 54 games, Duke has 34 assists and 25 of those are primary assists, while only 9 assists are secondary. Having 74% of your helpers be primary is pretty good.

Duke has cleared the first check.

Power Play Points

In the same way, Primary assists are more valuable than secondary assists, Even Strength goals are worth more than Power play points. Duke had 20 of his 70 points (29%) on the powerplay. These numbers look pretty good for Duke.

Of his 20 points, it is evenly split in half with 10 goals and 10 assists.  10 goals on the power play equates to 28% of his 36 goals. His 10 power play assist represent 29% of his 34 assist.

Another check on Reid.

Nolan Patrick’s involvement

Nolan Patrick is good. He is one of those players who is able to elevate the play of those around him. In only 31 games this year, Patrick has 45 points.

Now with Mattheos  it’s very clear to see the Patrick effect. In the earlier mentioned, Top WHL options, “Third red flag is he plays with Nolan Patrick, due to Patrick his point total is inflated. When Patrick is in the lineup, Mattheos has a 1.21 ppg (35 Points in 29 Games Played), which is a lot higher than .65 ppg (22 Points in 34 Games Played) when Patrick is not in the lineup.”

Now just because this happens doesn’t always mean there is connection. Look at Connor McDavid, when he was with the Erie Otters.

When Dane Fox was paired with McDavid, his point total shot right up to 107. Fox is currently on ECHL deal after the Canucks and Hurricanes gave up on him.

The counter is in Dylan Strome and Alex Debrincat. Both players put up huge totals after being paired with McDavid. Now they’re both top prospects and still producing even away from McDavid.

When we go to Duke though, it doesn’t matter at all. Duke and Patrick have only been on the score sheet together for 5 points. A majority of them are also Duke and Patrick assisting on the same goal.

As a result, Duke passed the third check.

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Conclusion

All of the red flags that apply to Mattheos and other prospects don’t apply to Duke at all. Duke has passed all of them with flying colors. Most people in the hockey community regard Duke with a low chance of making the NHL. Due to him passing all the tests, I believe he is being underrated. 

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